Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets. © Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009

Characterizing Long Term Rainfall Data for Estimating Climate Risk in Semi-arid Zimbabwe

There is still a strong disconnect between the parameters and scale of information that farmers prefer and those of the seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs). There is a need to augment SCFs as they are currently presented; to make them more useful for farm decision making. The objective of this study was to use simple statistical methods of analysis to characterise long term rainfall for estimating climate risk in semi-arid Zimbabwe. This study reveals the importance of accessing long-term daily rainfall records to enable “weather-within-climate” analyses that can be tailored to the needs of farmers. The most critical point is to describe the climate in terms of events of direct relevance to farming rather than simple standard measures. Agronomically, the important rainfall events relevant to farmers in rainfed agriculture include the start, end and length of the rainy season, risks of dry spells as well as the distribution of rainfall amounts through the year. There are difficult risks in El Nino compared to Ordinary and La Nina seasons in terms of frequency and length of dry spells, number of rain days, rainfall onset and cessation dates and total rainfall amount. The chance of a dry-spell being broken is also considerably lower in El Nino years, compared to La Nina and Ordinary years. Packaging SCF with historic climate data as well as bringing in the shorter range forecasts, together with the experience of the season as it develops is a way in which value could be added to climate information dissemination. Technologies that enhance water use efficiency could also be one of the major areas of research to be integrated into the semi-arid farmers’ existing strategies to cope with climate variability and ultimately change

Using a game to engage stakeholders in extreme event attribution science

The impacts of weather and climate-related disasters are increasing, and climate change can exacerbate many disasters. Effectively communicating climate risk and integrating science into policy requires scientists and stakeholders to work together. But dialogue between scientists and policymakers can be challenging given the inherently multidimensional nature of the issues at stake when managing climate risks. Building on the growing use of serious games to create dialogue between stakeholders, we present a new game for policymakers called Climate Attribution Under Loss and Damage: Risking, Observing,co-Negotiating (CAULDRON). CAULDRON aims to communicate understanding of the science attributing extreme events to climate change in a memorable and compelling way, and create space for dialogue around policy decisions addressing changing risks and loss and damage from climate change. We describe the process of developing CAULDRON, and draw on observations of players and their feedback to demonstrate its potential to facilitate the interpretation of probabilistic climate information and the understanding of its relevance to informing policy. Scientists looking to engage with stakeholders can learn valuable lessons in adopting similar innovative approaches. The suitability of games depends on the policy context but, if used appropriately, experiential learning can drive co-produced understanding and meaningful dialogue

COP21 climate negotiators' responses to climate model forecasts

Policymakers involved in climate change negotiations are key users of climate science. It is therefore vital to understand how to communicate scientific information most effectively to this group. We tested how a unique sample of policymakers and negotiators at the Paris COP21 conference update their beliefs on year 2100 global mean temperature increases in response to a statistical summary of climate models' forecasts. We randomized the way information was provided across participants using three different formats similar to those used in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. In spite of having received all available relevant scientific information, policymakers adopted such information very conservatively, assigning it less weight than their own prior beliefs. However, providing individual model estimates in addition to the statistical range was more effective in mitigating such inertia. The experiment was repeated with a population of European MBA students who, despite starting from similar priors, reported conditional probabilities closer to the provided models' forecasts than policymakers. There was also no effect of presentation format in the MBA sample. These results highlight the importance of testing visualization tools directly on the population of interest

Exploring the science–policy interface on climate change: The role of the IPCC in informing local decision-making in the UK

Building on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) review of how to make its Assessment Reports (ARs) more accessible in the future, the research reported here assesses the extent to which the ARs are a useful tool through which scientific advice informs local decision-making on climate change in the United Kingdom. Results from interviews with local policy representatives and three workshops with UK academics, practitioners and local decision makers are presented. Drawing on these data, we outline three key recommendations made by participants on how the IPCC ARs can be better utilized as a form of scientific advice to inform local decision-making on climate change. First, to provide more succinct summaries of the reports paying close attention to the language, content, clarity, context and length of these summaries; second, to better target and frame the reports from a local perspective to maximize engagement with local stakeholders; and third, to work with local decision makers to better understand how scientific advice on climate change is being incorporated in local decision-making. By adopting these, the IPCC would facilitate local decision-making on climate change and provide a systematic review of how its reports are being used locally. We discuss implications of these recommendations and their relevance to the wider debate within and outside the IPCC as to the most effective way the IPCC can more effectively tailor its products to user needs without endangering the robustness of its scientific findings. This article is published as part of a collection on scientific advice to government

A people-centred perspective on climate change, environmental stress, and livelihood resilience in Bangladesh

The Ganges–Brahmaputra delta enables Bangladesh to sustain a dense population, but it also exposes people to natural hazards. This article presents findings from the Gibika project, which researches livelihood resilience in seven study sites across Bangladesh. This study aims to understand how people in the study sites build resilience against environmental stresses, such as cyclones, floods, riverbank erosion, and drought, and in what ways their strategies sometimes fail. The article applies a new methodology for studying people’s decision making in risk-prone environments: the personal Livelihood History interviews (N = 28). The findings show how environmental stress, shocks, and disturbances affect people’s livelihood resilience and why adaptation measures can be unsuccessful. Floods, riverbank erosion, and droughts cause damage to agricultural lands, crops, houses, and properties. People manage to adapt by modifying their agricultural practices, switching to alternative livelihoods, or using migration as an adaptive strategy. In the coastal study sites, cyclones are a severe hazard. The study reveals that when a cyclone approaches, people sometimes choose not to evacuate: they put their lives at risk to protect their livelihoods and properties. Future policy and adaptation planning must use lessons learned from people currently facing environmental stress and shocks

Evidence and perceptions of rainfall change in Malawi: Do maize cultivar choices enhance climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa?

Getting farmers to adopt new cultivars with greater tolerance for coping with climatic extremes and variability is considered as one way of adapting agricultural production to climate change. However, for successful adaptation to occur, an accurate recognition and understanding of the climate signal by key stakeholders (farmers, seed suppliers and agricultural extension services) is an essential precursor. This paper presents evidence based on fieldwork with smallholder maize producers and national seed network stakeholders in Malawi from 2010 to 2011, assessing understandings of rainfall changes and decision-making about maize cultivar choices. Our findings show that preferences for short-season maize cultivars are increasing based on perceptions that season lengths are growing shorter due to climate change and the assumption that growing shorter-season crops represents a good strategy for adapting to drought. However, meteorological records for the two study areas present no evidence for shortening seasons (or any significant change to rainfall characteristics), suggesting that short-season cultivars may not be the most suitable adaptation option for these areas. This demonstrates the dangers of oversimplified climate information in guiding changes in farmer decision-making about cultivar choice

Phase I study to determine the safety, tolerability and immunostimulatory activity of thalidomide analogue CC-5013 in patients with metastatic malignant melanoma and other advanced cancers

We assessed the safety, tolerability and efficacy of the immunomodulatory drug, CC-5013 (REVIMID(TM)), in the treatment of patients with metastatic malignant melanoma and other advanced cancers. A total of 20 heavily pretreated patients received a dose-escalating regimen of oral CC-5013. Maximal tolerated dose, toxicity and clinical responses were evaluated and analysis of peripheral T-cell surface markers and serum for cytokines and proangiogenic factors were performed. CC-5013 was well tolerated. In all, 87% of adverse effects were classified as grade 1 or grade 2 according to Common Toxicity Criteria and there were no serious adverse events attributable to CC-5013 treatment. Six patients failed to complete the study, three because of disease progression, two withdrew consent and one was entered inappropriately and withdrawn from the study. The remaining 14 patients completed treatment without dose reduction, with one patient achieving partial remission. Evidence of T-cell activation was indicated by significantly increased serum levels of sIL-2 receptor, granulocyte- macrophage colony-stimulating factor, interleukin-12 (IL-12), tumour necrosis factor-alpha and IL-8 in nine patients from whom serum was available. However, levels of proangiogenic factors vascular endothelial growth factor and basic foetal growth factor were not consistently affected, This study demonstrates the safety, tolerability and suggests the clinical activity of CC-5013 in the treatment of refractory malignant melanoma. Furthermore, this is the first report demonstrating T-cell stimulatory activity of this class of compound in patients with advanced cancer